PVNet: A LRCN Architecture for Spatio-Temporal Photovoltaic PowerForecasting from Numerical Weather Prediction

Johan Mathe, Nina Miolane, Nicolas Sebastien, Jeremie Lequeux


Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has emerged as one of the lead renewable energy sources. Yet, its production is characterized by high uncertainty, being dependent on weather conditions like solar irradiance and temperature. Predicting PV production, even in the 24-hour forecast, remains a challenge and leads energy providers to left idling - often carbon emitting - plants. In this paper, we introduce a Long-Term Recurrent Convolutional Network using Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) to predict, in turn, PV production in the 24-hour and 48-hour forecast horizons. This network architecture fully leverages both temporal and spatial weather data, sampled over the whole geographical area of interest. We train our model on an NWP dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to predict spatially aggregated PV production in Germany. We compare its performance to the persistence model and state-of-the-art methods.

[Link] [BibTex]
Johan Mathe, Nina Miolane, Nicolas Sebastien, Jeremie Lequeux,
Feb. 2019.